Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
