A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
